IT'S Big Monday in Morgantown ... for a lot of reasons.
Tonight's soldout basketball game at the WVU Coliseum is part theESPN headline series, but it's become about much more than thechance to catch the riff among "Raft" and Co.
It's become about more than just the 175th date with rival Pitt,too, and Senior Night for Darris Nichols, Jamie Smalligan and TedTalkington, from that same New Martinsville pipeline as "Fiesta"Billy Stewart.
There are several reasons West Virginia really, really needs towin this one.
It's about coming as close as reasonably possible to nailing downan NCAA berth 13 days before Selection Sunday. It's about needing aquality win. It's about positively affecting a seed for next week'sBig East Conference Tournament.
Pitt's astounding comeback win Saturday over Syracuse at astunned Carrier Dome was mostly a positive for WVU (20-9, 9-7). Ithelps the Mountaineers, however, only if they upend the Panthers (21-8, 9-7) tonight.
The Pitt-Syracuse game cost WVU a bit, too. Besides theMountaineers' loss at Connecticut on Saturday, the Pitt win droppedthe Orange from the Ratings Percentage top 50. That diminished WVU'searlier win over SU.
It means WVU's top 50 record is only 1-7, and Coach Bob Huggins'club fell to 41st in the RPI - which, if history of the past decadeis any indication, is just about as low as you can go without moretop 50 success and still hope to land one of the 34 at-large NCAATournament berths.
When Georgetown's Jonathan Wallace was fouled at the end ofregulation and made three straight free throws at Marquette and thenhis Hoyas won it overtime, it hurt WVU - because the Mountaineers'lone top 50 win (and best conference victory) is over the GoldenEagles.
See, with the RPI, it's as much about who the foes you beatdefeated as it is who you defeated yourself. Get that?
WVU was picked to finish 10th in the Big East this season, and sothe Mountaineers have played a softer schedule (home-and-home withPitt, Providence and St. John's) than contenders above and aroundthem. That helps and hurts when you're sitting on the NCAA bubble.
Comparing this NCAA waiting game for WVU to last year's MarchMadness disappointment - OK, winning an NIT title was a really nicebalm - is an apples-oranges deal.
WVU had a much worse non-conference schedule strength (271 of336) last season than now (147). The only at-large team that gotinto the Large Lambada with a worse non-league schedule was NotreDame (309), but the Irish had 24 wins and were 11-5 in the Big East.
West Virginia also was No. 57 in the RPI on the last SelectionSunday. One team below that got an at-large bid, and (No. 65)Stanford had nine top 100 wins. No. 55 Virginia had 11.
The opinion here is that if WVU beats Pitt tonight and wins overSt. John's on Saturday in Madison Square Garden, Huggins will makehis 16th NCAA coaching trip - no matter what happens to the 'Eers inthe first round of the Big East tourney a week from this Wednesday.
If WVU wins the two this week, it finishes 11-7 in the Big Eastand likely in sixth place by itself (look at the other schedules) -or maybe even in a tie for fifth with Marquette (if it loses atSyracuse, playing with a great, great urgency, on Saturday). WestVirginia would have the head-to-head tiebreaker on the GoldenEagles.
That sets up a game for the Mountaineers that appears morewinnable in the first round (against DePaul or Seton Hall, ratherthan Syracuse or Villanova).
What else does Huggins first WVU team have going for it?
Well, a lot of teams that have a similar RPI profile to theMountaineers are playing no better or worse down the stretch. (SeeKansas State, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Creighton, Ohio State, VirginiaTech, Rhode Island).
Another positive is that West Virginia has no "bad RPI" losses. Idon't mean losing to Cincinnati 62-39 at home and shooting 20percent. Yes, that is bad. However, WVU hasn't fallen to a teamranked lower than those Bearcats' No. 78 in the RPI. The selectioncommittee crunches those type of things.
A victory over Pitt would vault WVU back into the RPI top 40 andhelps in another way, too. The Panthers are 9-7 against RPI top 100teams. It's who the foes you beat have beaten, remember?
Pitt is 23rd in the RPI and has wins over Duke (neutral site),Georgetown, WVU, Villanova and at Syracuse.
A former NCAA Basketball Committee chairman told me years agothat when he was in "the room," one thing he always asked fellowmembers in evaluating teams for the last few spots and trying todiscern the differences was this question:
"Would you want to play that team?"
West Virginia is noticeably improved defensively and rarely turnsit over (10.6 per game). The Mountaineers may lose early in thetournament, but they wouldn't be an easy out.
If tonight is the kind of Big Monday the Mountaineers need,they'll have a bigger Sunday on March 16.
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